Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 44, 2022)

by | Nov 8, 2022 | Saul's Insights | 0 comments

By Edward J. Pinto | Tobias Peter

November 08, 2022

PDF to full report

Key takeaways:

Key takeaways:

  • The 10-year old seller’s market is showing its age, with moderate purchase volume declines due to sharply higher rates & a cumulative 37% increase in constant quality HPA since Jan. 2020.
  • Tight supply, the work from home revolution, & arbitrage opportunities due to metro & regional price differences are helping to extend the seller’s market.
  • Purchase volume for weeks 44 is down 48%, 26% & 14% from 2021, 2019 & 2018, respectively, with HPA projected to moderate to 9.2%, 7.3%, & 5.3% in Oct., Nov., & first half of Dec. 2022, respectively.
  • If the current mortgage rate of near 7% holds, we expect December 2022 HPA to slow to 4-6% (y-o-y) as demand will further moderate and supply increases.
  •  Y-o-y HPA declines will be developing soon at the high end of expensive markets, spreading to the low end of some FHA markets, & in metros with stagnating or declining job growth.
  • We expect the national seller’s market to end in 2023.


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