Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch (Week 31, 2022)

by | Aug 9, 2022 | Saul's Insights | 0 comments


Key takeaways:

  • The 10-year old seller’s market continues, evidenced by:
    • Modest purchase volume declines, in spite of a cumulative 39% increase in constant quality HPA since January 2020,
    • Historically tight supply,
    • The work from home revolution, and
    • Arbitrage opportunities due to metro & regional price differences.
  • Purchase volume for week 31 is down 36% and 27% from 2021 & 2019, respectively, with HPA projected to moderate to 9.6% in the first half of September.
  • If the current mortgage rate of around 6% holds, we expect December 2022 HPA to slow to 4-6% (y-o-y ) as demand will further moderate and supply will increase.
  • HPA declines seem plausible at the high end of expensive markets, at the low end of some FHA markets, and in metros with stagnating or declining job growth.
  • While in the midst of the most rapid slowdown in Home Price Appreciation (HPA) since the bust of 2007-2011, demand pull inflation continues to exert a strong influence on general inflation.
  • While HPA is rapidly slowing, loan originations (other than FHA) continue to exhibit stressed mortgage default rates that will contain default levels.


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